A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
