Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average figure of per-day murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers may not signal better countrywide stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the least number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could hide periods when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst remarked.