From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”