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Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.