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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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