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Just 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.