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Skipper Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the first Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing fitness concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had suggested that Cummins might miss the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more comprehensive update on his condition.

Recovery Process

The veteran cricketer has been struggling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last professional game in July.

While Cummins has resumed running training, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"It's difficult to assign a percentage on it, but I'd say probably less likely than likely," stated Cummins. "My bowling preparation begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and bowling out on turf."

Bowling Preparation

Team mentor Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would require a bare minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of playing in the first Test, set to begin on November 21.

Cummins echoed this assessment, clarifying: "You'd want at least probably a month in the nets. If you participate in a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without worry."

Series Implications

Given the tight timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unfit, former skipper Steve Smith is expected to lead the side, with Scott Boland potentially filling the gap in the pace department.

Australia have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test win in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current injury concerns mirror challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time.

However, his impressive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins endured six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his lower back.

Notable Accomplishments

When fit, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's premier fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test wickets at an impressive average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more impressive, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has claimed 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his importance to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a successful 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's victorious World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final victory against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own fitness concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be assessing their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series nears.