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Mounting concerns exist about the chance of armed conflict involving East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in the previous year that his country's access to the sea was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

Amid continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry warned on recently that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Region

So far, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The two endorsed a announcement that the conflict was over – a action that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

But relations have since broken down again.